Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
